Clearly, the real estate bubble has popped and we are in the down cycle. No surprise here, really, because everything economic always cycles up and down. The survivors figure out how to deal with it.
This post isn't about doom and gloom. It's about how present circumstances are creating a huge opportunity for those who seize it. Let me explain.
The last major real estate down cycle we saw was from 1991 through 1997. I was curious about what happened to the real estate agent force during that period, so I went to the NAR Web site to see what information they had. Turns out they provide detailed NAR membership statistics for more than the last 30 years.
I downloaded both national and state-by-state membership statistics into a spreadsheet, and then added some calculations to help analyze what was going on during that period, and to project what history might tell us about the future. The chart summarizing the history and projections is right here (click it to enlarge).
First, let me orient you to the national portion of the chart.
- The years are in row 1.
- Total National NAR Membership, year-by-year, is in row 2.
- The actual national agent membership loss for each year is in row 3.
- The national percentage membership gain or loss is in row 4.
- The total percentage of national membership loss for the entire down cycle period is in cell G5.
- The projected national membership loss is in cell H6.
I did a separate analysis of the same issues for California; because I live here, it has the biggest NAR state membership, and it demonstrates what can happen in a down cycle when extraordinary factors are added in. California's extraordinary factor during this period was the ending of the Cold War and the negative impact that had on aerospace contracts.
So now, let me orient you to the California portion of the chart.
- The years are in row 7.
- Total California NAR Membership, year-by-year, is in row 8.
- The actual California agent membership loss for each year is in row 9.
- The California percentage of membership gain or loss is in row 10.
- The total percentage of California membership loss for the entire down cycle period is in cell G11.
- The projected California membership loss is in cell H13.
Observations
On a national level, the downturn really wasn't all that bad over eight years; only 12.98%. Compare that to the increase in national NAR membership (cell H2) over the next nine years; it almost doubled!
Oh, but California; what a shock that was. 41.06% (cell G11) left the business during the downturn. Then, amazingly, membership way more than doubled (compare cell G8 to cell H8) in the next nine years. Talk about a manic depressive state! :>)
The questions to ask yourself now are:
- Are you in a location where the downturn won't be severe; or very severe?
- Are there any extraordinary market conditions locally that could make your downturn more severe?
Some would argue that the mortgage meltdown is an extraordinary circumstance that could make the real estate business much more difficult, for an extended period of time, for everyone, everywhere. That's your call.
So Where's the Opportunity In All This?
Ironically, the bigger the membership loss is, the bigger the opportunity for surviving agents.
There are a huge number of agents in the real estate industry whom I call hobbyists. They don't really run their business like a business (i.e. with significant planning, investment, marketing and systems). They simply rely on their existing relationships for business (i.e. their immediate family and friends). That clearly won't be enough to sustain them in a down market.
The Hobbyists were already finding the bar to doing business being raised beyond their reach; what with Internet marketing technologies, competitive pressures on commissions, and all. Now that the market has turned, huge numbers of them will be forced to leave the business entirely. History shows that that happened before; and it projects that it will happen again (maybe in even greater percentages this time).
So what does this all mean for the survivors? It means that there is an enormous opportunity to salvage the relationships that the hobbyists would otherwise be leaving behind. It means that the survivors who do this successfully will not only survive this current downturn in style, but will position themselves for fantastic gains when the market inevitably turns upward again.
How can a survivor agent accomplish this relationship salvage operation? Answer: Turn the departing hobbyists into strong referral sources. Offer to reward them for any business generated from any email databases they share with you. Ask them to introduce you via one of your emails. Let them notify their relationships that they are leaving the business, but leaving them in very good hands. Nurture these databases with automated 33 Touch campaigns (ala "The Millionaire Real Estate Agent", i.e. MREA). Invite the departed agent to continue to make posts in your emailings from time to time; this will help keep a warm connection going.
This is definitely a Win/Win proposition. Departing agents can still monetize their relationships without having to do any real work; and you can build a much larger "Met" email database, almost over-night. Building a very large, warm and fuzzy "Met" email database will enable you to do massive automated marketing campaigns which cost next to nothing.
Just think about the MREA model; you know; two transactions from every 12 names in your Met database per year. Go ahead; bring some cheer to your departing agent friends; they'll welcome it.
Tip for departing agents; only buddy up with agents who are actually prepared to take the very best care of your treasured relationships. You'll be taking good care of those relationships, and you won't be leaving money on the table.

For many real estate agents it seems that their concept of "lead generation" is something akin to playing lotto. Place the right ad, in the right space, at just the right time, and you win the transaction. No wonder so many of them go broke playing this game.
How well is this approach working for him? Bet he gets slapped a lot. This post is about a natural and more effective way to build relationships.






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